Oil, Inflation and Interest Rates: What’s Driving Markets Right Now?
Market Commentary
Rising Oil Prices Put Inflation and Interest Rates Back in Focus
Oil prices and the Middle East remain at the center of the market’s attention.
At the time of this Market Commentary, the S&P 500 remained up approximately 10.8% year to date, despite falling roughly 2.5% from its mid-August peak. Recent headlines and market weakness may make conditions feel more negative, but stocks remain firmly positive for the year.
The challenge facing markets today is the connection between geopolitical conflict, energy prices, inflation and interest rates.
Middle East Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has expanded beyond the Persian Gulf, with disruptions threatening additional oil transportation and global shipping routes.
These developments have contributed to a significant increase in energy prices. At the time of recording, oil prices had risen approximately 12% over the previous week and 23% over the previous month.
The impact extends beyond gasoline.
Oil is involved in the production and transportation of countless goods throughout the global economy. As energy and transportation costs increase, those expenses can filter through to the prices consumers and businesses pay for other products and services.
That brings inflation back into focus.
Inflation Could Keep Pressure on the Federal Reserve
The latest core Consumer Price Index reading discussed by Rick increased 0.3% for the month, excluding food and energy.
Inflation therefore remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while rising oil prices could create additional pressure.
Markets are now focused on what that combination could mean for monetary policy. At the time of recording, market expectations reflected an approximately 85% probability of an interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting.
Expectations also suggested the possibility of another rate increase later in the year.
The 10-Year Treasury Moves Above 5%
The pressure is also showing up in longer-term interest rates.
At the time of recording, the 10-year Treasury yield had moved above 5%, reaching a level not seen in at least a decade according to Rick.
Investors are weighing several factors when determining the return they require from longer-term government debt, including persistent inflation concerns, uncertainty surrounding future oil prices and the U.S. government’s elevated deficits and debt levels.
Higher interest rates matter to stock investors because they increase the return available from bonds while also increasing borrowing costs and the discount rates used to value future corporate earnings.
That helps explain why stocks have faced renewed selling pressure as Treasury yields have risen.
Strong Earnings Remain an Important Counterweight
The outlook is not entirely negative.
Corporate earnings have remained exceptionally strong this year. Rick notes that S&P 500 earnings growth has ranged from approximately 30% to 50%, depending on the metric used and whether certain one-time items are included.
Those earnings have provided an important tailwind for stocks and help explain why the S&P 500 remains up close to 11% for the year despite geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns and higher interest rates.
Market declines can also make valuations more attractive as stock prices fall relative to underlying earnings.
For investors, the current environment is therefore a balance between two powerful forces: pressure from oil, inflation and higher interest rates on one side, and strong corporate earnings on the other.
The market’s next direction may depend heavily on whether the conflict affecting global energy markets begins to improve and whether oil prices can stabilize.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The S&P 500 remained up approximately 10.8% year to date at the time of recording despite recent weakness
Oil prices had risen approximately 12% over the previous week and 23% over the previous month
Higher energy prices can contribute to broader inflation throughout the economy
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target
Markets were pricing in a high probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase
The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5% at the time of recording
Higher interest rates can create pressure for equity valuations
Strong corporate earnings continue to provide meaningful support for stocks
Watch the latest Market Commentary with Rick Wedell for more perspective on how oil prices, inflation, interest rates and earnings are shaping today’s market environment.
Oil, Inflation and Interest Rates: What’s Driving Markets Right Now?
Rising Oil Prices Put Inflation and Interest Rates Back in Focus
Oil prices and the Middle East remain at the center of the market’s attention.
At the time of this Market Commentary, the S&P 500 remained up approximately 10.8% year to date, despite falling roughly 2.5% from its mid-August peak. Recent headlines and market weakness may make conditions feel more negative, but stocks remain firmly positive for the year.
The challenge facing markets today is the connection between geopolitical conflict, energy prices, inflation and interest rates.
Middle East Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has expanded beyond the Persian Gulf, with disruptions threatening additional oil transportation and global shipping routes.
These developments have contributed to a significant increase in energy prices. At the time of recording, oil prices had risen approximately 12% over the previous week and 23% over the previous month.
The impact extends beyond gasoline.
Oil is involved in the production and transportation of countless goods throughout the global economy. As energy and transportation costs increase, those expenses can filter through to the prices consumers and businesses pay for other products and services.
That brings inflation back into focus.
Inflation Could Keep Pressure on the Federal Reserve
The latest core Consumer Price Index reading discussed by Rick increased 0.3% for the month, excluding food and energy.
Inflation therefore remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while rising oil prices could create additional pressure.
Markets are now focused on what that combination could mean for monetary policy. At the time of recording, market expectations reflected an approximately 85% probability of an interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting.
Expectations also suggested the possibility of another rate increase later in the year.
The 10-Year Treasury Moves Above 5%
The pressure is also showing up in longer-term interest rates.
At the time of recording, the 10-year Treasury yield had moved above 5%, reaching a level not seen in at least a decade according to Rick.
Investors are weighing several factors when determining the return they require from longer-term government debt, including persistent inflation concerns, uncertainty surrounding future oil prices and the U.S. government’s elevated deficits and debt levels.
Higher interest rates matter to stock investors because they increase the return available from bonds while also increasing borrowing costs and the discount rates used to value future corporate earnings.
That helps explain why stocks have faced renewed selling pressure as Treasury yields have risen.
Strong Earnings Remain an Important Counterweight
The outlook is not entirely negative.
Corporate earnings have remained exceptionally strong this year. Rick notes that S&P 500 earnings growth has ranged from approximately 30% to 50%, depending on the metric used and whether certain one-time items are included.
Those earnings have provided an important tailwind for stocks and help explain why the S&P 500 remains up close to 11% for the year despite geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns and higher interest rates.
Market declines can also make valuations more attractive as stock prices fall relative to underlying earnings.
For investors, the current environment is therefore a balance between two powerful forces: pressure from oil, inflation and higher interest rates on one side, and strong corporate earnings on the other.
The market’s next direction may depend heavily on whether the conflict affecting global energy markets begins to improve and whether oil prices can stabilize.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Watch the latest Market Commentary with Rick Wedell for more perspective on how oil prices, inflation, interest rates and earnings are shaping today’s market environment.